1) MARKET BAROMETER - AUGUST 2025
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August saw a shift from July's broad-based rally to a more selective, and at times, challenging market environment. While some trends from July continued, like the strength of technology and emerging markets, August
introduced new headwinds that tested investor optimism. Let´s look more into it:
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Equity Markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their upward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace than in July. The S&P 500 gained 1.9% in August, bringing its year-to-date return to about 19%. During August, it reached its all-time high valuation at
6510.93. Pretty cool.Â
As in most cases, the performance was not uniform across the board. AI-driven tech companies maintained their leadership, but a growing number of stocks, particularly those outside the "Magnificent 7," lagged behind. This created a divergence between the headline indices and the broader market. Great investors, such as Howard Marks, have stated that Great Tech Companies are not necessarily overpriced, but many companies
in the S&P 500 are. The trade disputes and tariff threats mentioned in the July post continued to be a source of volatility, impacting multinational companies and specific industrial sectors.Â
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Emerging Markets. Emerging markets remained resilient, largely benefiting from a weakening U.S. dollar, which depreciated by almost 10% in 2025 (against a basket of major
currencies) on a trade-weighted basis. This provided a tailwind for many emerging economies by making their exports cheaper and their debt burdens more manageable. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index finished August with YTD gains of 20%.
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Bond Markets experienced mixed results in August. The shift in sentiment highlights the delicate balance the Fed is attempting to strike between
managing inflation and promoting economic growth.
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The real estate sector remained somewhat depressed. High borrowing costs continue to be a significant drag on commercial property, where refinancing risks are high. Global REITs showed some signs of life but were still struggling to find solid footing.Â
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The crypto markets faced renewed pressure in August after a strong July. Bitcoin's price stabilized in the $100K–105K range for most of the month before experiencing a late-month sell-off that pushed it below the $100K mark. While the July passage of the GENIUS Act provided clarity for stablecoins, the lack of further legislative action regarding other digital assets weighed on sentiment, especially for altcoins, which had mixed results.
It is fun to read headlines stating that Crypto has become a boring investment asset. As the adage goes, when investing, look for excitement elsewhere.