1) MARKET BAROMETER
One of the most reported words in April was “uncertainty” — and much of it has been man-made. The capital markets reflected that mood sharply.
After hitting all-time highs on February 19th (6,147.43), fueled by Trump’s
reelection momentum and persistent AI-driven hype, global equity markets faced a sharp reality check in March. Major indices like the S&P500 corrected by close to -10 %, flirting with bear market territory (-20 %) on April 7th (4,835) before staging a positive recovery in April (5,569).
In a recent interview (April 23rd, 2025), renowned U.S. economist Kenneth Rogoff summarized the mood
aptly:
"The state of the global economy was in modestly good shape, but it has been thrown into chaos with the restructuring of globalization that Donald Trump comes with. It is a pretty wild time."
Rogoff further pointed out that while a 20% tariff is damaging — disrupting trade, supply chains, and inflation — what’s more dangerous is the
randomness of current economic policy. Markets react not just to fundamentals, but to signals.
And when the signals are erratic, fear sets in:
“You don’t know what’s coming.”
So far, Markets haven’t crashed, but they’ve been shocked. April brought a
slight recovery, but uncertainty remains high. The VIX index (the fear gauge), from 14.77 in February, had its peak on April 9 (57.96). By early May, it was back to 22.68, a moderate position.
Stock prices are still expensive (S&P500 P/E Ratio by the end of April was still over 29.86).
Bonds are under pressure. Inflation is sticking around, global
tensions are rising, and it’s unclear what central banks will do next. Interest rates on government bonds remain high, and the extra returns investors want for taking on risk (called “spreads”) also increased a bit in April. People are being cautious, waiting for more stability before locking into long-term bonds