1) MARKET BAROMETER
After the unwelcome excitement of the first four months of the year, May proved relatively uneventful. The OECD revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 downward to 2.9%, citing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Who can blame them?
The dance around tariffs remains unresolved. Notably, in May, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1—the first time since 1917 that the agency has assigned the U.S. a rating below its top tier. That’s hardly a trivial signal.
Geopolitical risks
persist, from the Middle East and Ukraine-Russia tensions to China-Taiwan concerns. Still, market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic, supported by a strong rebound in equities but tempered by underlying macroeconomic challenges.
Overall, I’d call this a ‘so far, so good’ moment. From an investment standpoint, rather than fussing over strategic and
tactical allocation shifts, I continue to hold a neutral, steady-state approach—letting the real economy work through the noise, creating value for clients and markets, and tuning out emotional swings and forecasts.
