Sweat Your Assets Monthly Digest - September 2025

1. Market Barometer
2. Quotes of the Month
3. Posts
4. YouTube Tutorial

1) MARKET BAROMETER

September surprised everyone. Historically, one of the weakest months, one we often brace ourselves for, turned into one of the strongest. The S&P 500 gained roughly 3.5% in September, while the Nasdaq surged over 5%, posting its best September in more than a decade. But it is just playing with statistics:-) These gains didn’t arise in isolation. They came on top of a strong year already underway. Through the first nine months of 2025, the S&P 500 had already returned about 14% year-to-date. 

Beyond the U.S., the MSCI World 2025 (a global equity index that tracks large and mid-cap stocks from 23 developed countries) has returned modestly, reflecting a mixed global performance. Meanwhile, gold has been a standout. Its upward run into September bolstered its year-to-date gains (+45% YTD), reinforcing its role as a refuge for cautious capital. 

Crypto has remained volatile, with pockets of strength, but no clear consensus across the space. The VIX, meanwhile, has drifted upward during September, whispering of more market stress than the calm surface suggests.

In bond markets, yields continued to rise, particularly for the 10-year U.S. Treasury. That is a headwind for bonds (prices fall as yields rise), and a latent challenge for equities because higher yields effectively raise the bar for future earnings. The rally in stocks is more pronounced when it occurs in the presence of rising yields.

Elsewhere in global capital flows, India saw about $2.7 billion withdrawn from its equities in September, marking another month of outflows and cooling one of the year’s hottest markets.

 Energy prices also climbed, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, which tightened inflationary stress for many economies.

Let´s zoom out and monitor the performance of different asset classes over the last few years, updated to Q3 2025. It’s a visual reminder that market leadership constantly shifts — what wins one year may lag the next.

So far in 2025, Emerging Markets (+28%) and International Stocks (+25%) have led the pack, while Bonds and REITs have delivered more modest gains. 

Much of this year’s equity growth continues to be powered by excitement around AI (artificial intelligence). Big Tech remains the main driver of returns. Yet, as valuations stretch, more voices - even among Big Tech CEOs - are questioning whether this enthusiasm is starting to resemble the early stages of a bubble. Both arguments have their logic. Time will be the ultimate judge.

The message is clear: diversification still matters. No single asset class dominates for long, and staying balanced remains the most reliable way to capture returns while managing risk.

Balance and flexibility matter more than bold conviction now. In a world where yield curves, policy shifts, and capital flows can reverse fast, rigid bets feel riskier than ever.

Yet volatility is not the enemy. It’s the pattern of markets unfolding. What matters is how we ride them, not whether we anticipate every turn.

For me, September reinforced a timeless truth: progress is rarely linear. Momentum, tension, corrections — they all coexist in cycles. The trick is to stay rooted in your strategy, not swept by the moment.

Until next month, stay curious, stay disciplined, and, as always, sweat your assets.

2) SWEAT YOUR ASSETS - QUOTES OF THE MONTH

• AI and Job Losses. At Dartmouth University’s Thayer School of Engineering, Murati made comments about AI’s impact on creative jobs that sparked significant backlash: “Some creative jobs maybe will go away, but maybe they shouldn’t have been there in the first place. Mira MURATI (former OpenAI CTO)
• On Mood and Self-Reliance. Your mood is the first thing you create each morning. Shape it with intention, or it will shape you without consent. Make your mood, or it makes you. Shane Parrish
• On Wealth and Fulfilment. We often chase success as if it were the cure for all uncertainty. But once achieved, it rarely delivers what we expect. “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of, so they can see that it’s not the answer.” Jim Carrey

Until next month, Sweat Your Assets,

Alessandro Baroni

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