February was a month shaped as much by geopolitics as by economics.Â
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Three storylines dominated: Trump's tariff announcements rattled global supply chains and corporate earnings outlooks throughout the month; the fallout from Maduro's capture in Venezuela continued to reprice oil and energy markets;
and on the very last day of February, the US launched military strikes on Iran — a development whose full market consequences are still unfolding.Â
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Markets absorbed these shocks with surprising composure, but the background mood shifted. Rotation out of tech and high-beta names into defensives was the clearest signal that investors were quietly reducing risk.
The S&P
500 ended slightly in the red, holding just above its 100-day moving average. International markets proved more resilient — a quiet reminder of why diversification matters.
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Bitcoin had one of its worst months in recent memory. After peaking above $125,000 in late 2025, it fell below $70,000 as forced liquidations, ETF outflows, and weakening liquidity drove a sharp deleveraging wave. Crypto still behaves like a risk asset
when liquidity tightens — not the store of value some hope it will become.
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Gold held firm and continues its quiet dominance: up roughly 67% over the past year. Safe-haven demand, a weaker dollar, and now a genuine energy chokepoint risk at the Strait of Hormuz all support it. The Fed held rates steady and signalled patience. The VIX moved into the 19–24 range — elevated but not alarming.
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February was not a crash. But it was a reminder that discipline matters most when markets make it uncomfortable.
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